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How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

Thursday, August 1, 2019   /   by Jordan Waters

How to Judge the Impact of the Next Economic Slowdown on Housing

We’ve experienced economic growth for almost a decade, which is the longest recovery in the nation’s history. Experts know a recession can’t be too far off, but when will this economic slowdown actually occur?


Pulsenomics just released a special report revealing that nearly 6 out of 10 of the 90 economists, investment strategists, and market analysts surveyed believe the next recession will occur by the end of next year. Here’s the breakdown:



  • 9% believe a recession will occur this year

  • 50% believe it will occur in 2020

  • 35% believe it will occur in 2021

  • 6% believe it will occur after 2021


When asked what would trigger the next recession, the three most common responses by those surveyed were:



  1. Trade Policy

  2. Stock Market Correction

  3. Geopolitical Crisis


How might the recession impact real estate?


Challenges in the housing and mortgage markets were major triggers of the last recession. However, a housing slowdown ranked #9 on the list of potential triggers for the next recession, behind such possibilities as fiscal policy and political gridlock.


As far as the impact the recession may have on home values, the experts surveyed indicated home prices would continue to appreciate over the next few years. They called for a 4.1% appreciation rate this year, 2.8% in 2020, and 2.5% in 2021.


BOTTOM LINE


On the same day, in the same survey, the same experts who forecasted a recession happening within the next 18 months also claimed housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate.


  colorado real estate, buyers, sellers

The Kevin Schumacher Team at EXP Realty, LLC
1615 Foxtrail Drive, Ste 260
Loveland, CO 80538
720-230-3030

Information and Real Estate Services, LLC. Provided for limited non-commercial use only under IRES Rules. © 2020 IRES. Listing information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS or eXp Realty LLC. *Not intended to solicit buyers under buyers agency, not intended to solicit listings currently listed.*The statements and opinions contained in this advertisement are solely those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of eXp Realty, LLC, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (the “Company”). The Company does not assume any responsibility for, nor does it warrant the accuracy, completeness or quality of the information provided.
Information and Real Estate Services, LLC. Provided for limited non-commercial use only under IRES Rules. © 2020 IRES. Listing information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Data last updated October 29, 2020 3 AM. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS or Kevin Schumacher - The Kevin Schumacher Team / EXP Realty, LLC.
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