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Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Monday, March 23, 2020   /   by Kevin Schumacher

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:



“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”



Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Riskbelieves we are already in a recession:



“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”



How deep will it go?


No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | Simplifying The MarketGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”


This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:



“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”



Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.


*Quarter 1 data from Goldman Sachs was updated from 0% to -0.2% on 3/17/20 after the initial release.

Bottom Line


This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.


  buyers, sellers, market trends

The Kevin Schumacher Team at EXP Realty, LLC
1615 Foxtrail Drive, Ste 260
Loveland, CO 80538
720-230-3030

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Information and Real Estate Services, LLC. Provided for limited non-commercial use only under IRES Rules. © 2020 IRES. Listing information is provided exclusively for consumers' personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Data last updated September 30, 2020 11 PM. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed by the MLS or Kevin Schumacher - The Kevin Schumacher Team / EXP Realty, LLC.
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